Squamish 2026 Real Estate Forecast: Why We’re Outperforming the Lower Mainland

Posted on Jul 10, 2026


Earlier this year, something happened in Squamish real estate that has never happened before. In January 2026, the MLS® Home Price Index benchmark price for a typical Squamish home climbed to $1,122,200 - about $20,300 above Greater Vancouver’s $1,101,900. February widened the gap. For two consecutive months, Squamish was the more expensive market. That has never been true in the recorded history of the index. The two markets have traded the lead in the months since, but the headline isn’t who is ahead this month - it’s that after a decade of Squamish trailing Vancouver by hundreds of thousands of dollars, the gap has closed entirely.

By the numbers

  • Historic crossover, Jan 2026: Squamish HPI benchmark $1,122,200 vs Greater Vancouver $1,101,900 - Squamish ahead by $20,300, a first.
  • Current spread, Apr 2026: Squamish $1,078,400 vs Greater Vancouver $1,098,000 - Vancouver back ahead by less than 2%.
  • One year ago, Jun 2025: Vancouver was ahead by $40,900. The spread has roughly halved in 12 months.
  • Active inventory, May 2026: 288 homes in Squamish - the highest level in the past year.
  • Median days on market, Feb 2026: just 7 days. The last 12 months have averaged in the teens to low 20s.

What the data says about the market

The HPI numbers say convergence. A year ago, Greater Vancouver’s benchmark was about $40,900 higher than Squamish’s. Today it’s about $19,600 higher - and earlier this year, the order was reversed. Greater Vancouver’s benchmark fell roughly 6% over the past year; Squamish fell about 4%, narrowing the gap from both sides.That alone explains the crossover. But it doesn’t fully capture why Squamish’s market feels strong on the ground. Two other numbers do.

Inventory.
As of May 2026, there were 288 active Squamish listings - the highest level we’ve seen in the past year, and well above the December 2025 trough of 154. Buyers have selection. This isn’t a desperate-supply market where well-priced homes vanish in hours because there’s nothing else to look at.

Days on market.
February 2026’s median listing sold in just 7 days. The past 12 months have averaged in the teens to low 20s, with most months at or below 22 days. So while buyers have choice, sellers who price correctly are still getting offers in a hurry.

A healthy market has both - real supply and real demand absorbing it. Squamish currently has both.

Why Squamish decoupled

Three drivers explain why Squamish kept pace - and briefly overtook - Greater Vancouver while the broader region cooled.

1. We’re no longer a spillover market.
For years, Squamish was where Vancouverites went when they couldn’t quite afford Vancouver. That story is over. Today’s Squamish buyers are largely young families and move-up buyers purchasing primary residences - not investors parking equity. That kind of demand is sticky in a way investor demand isn’t.

2. The lifestyle premium hasn’t depreciated.
The reasons people moved here in 2020 - mountains, ocean, trails, a downtown that keeps growing, Sea-to-Sky access - didn’t go away when interest rates rose. If anything, the last two years have made it more obvious which BC markets have real, irreplaceable amenities and which were paper-thin.

3. We don’t have the same headwinds.
Parts of Metro Vancouver are working through a glut of investor condos and pre-sale completions that are weighing on prices. Squamish doesn’t carry that overhang.

What’s actually selling

Townhouses in the $1M–$1.5M range are the hottest segment heading into 2026. Squamish townhouse sales rose 12% in 2025, and Q4 outperformed the rest of the market with a 42% jump over Q4 2024. They solve what one local agent calls “the Squamish problem”: gear storage, door-front access and a yard for the dog, at a price point Sea-to-Sky buyers can actually reach.

Detached homes in the $2M–$3M band are the other engine. Move-up buyers are skipping fixer-uppers and going straight to turn-key forever homes with suites and land - willing to pay for finished product rather than take on renovation risk.

Condos slowed in late 2025, but the strong February days-on-market reading and rebuilding inventory suggest the segment is finding its footing. With more listings on now, well-priced condos remain a real opportunity for entry-level buyers before spring competition fully arrives.

What to expect for the rest of 2026

Our base case for the rest of the year:
  • The two markets continue to trade the lead month-to-month. Expect Squamish back ahead during slower Vancouver months.
  • The “active middle” - $1M–$1.5M townhouses and $1.5M–$2.5M detached - stays the engine of activity.
  • Inventory at recent highs (288 in May) gives buyers leverage on overpriced listings - but well-priced homes will still move quickly based on recent DOM trends.
  • Further Bank of Canada rate cuts, if they come, will help entry-level segments the most.
Risks worth watching: a broader Canadian recession, a federal immigration policy shift that meaningfully cools BC demand, or a resurgence in inflation that forces rates back up. None of these are in our base case, but they’re the variables that could change the story.

What this means for you

If you’re selling. The market is growing, but it’s discerning. The February 7-day median tells you turn-key homes priced right will move fast. Overpriced listings will sit on the rising inventory pile. If you’re in the sweet spot, this is a strong window - don’t wait for the late-summer slowdown.If you’re buying. Don’t expect Vancouver-style discounts here - that’s the whole point of this article. The opportunity is in well-priced condos and townhouses while inventory is at recent highs, and before competition picks up further into the season.

The bottom line

A decade ago, “Squamish vs. Vancouver” was an apples-to-oranges conversation about commuters, weekend cabins and bargain prices. In 2026, the benchmark numbers say it’s a real comparison between two distinct markets - and for two months earlier this year, ours was the more expensive one.If you want a personalized read on your specific neighbourhood, price band, or timeline, get in touch. Local knowledge matters more than ever now that Squamish is its own market, not a sub-plot of Vancouver’s.

Sources

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